Tennis · M15 Monastir · 30/09, 10:30
Prediction: Andrea Colombo vs Ewen Lumsden
Team pages: Andrea Colombo · Ewen Lumsden
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Colombo
Ewen Lumsden
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Colombo
6-4 (W-L)
Ewen Lumsden
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Colombo 1528 · Ewen Lumsden 1583
| Andrea Colombo | Ewen Lumsden | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ewen Lumsden (rating 1528 vs 1583).
- Andrea Colombo dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 43.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Andrea Colombo | Ewen Lumsden | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-12.3 | 12.8-8.9 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 64% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 55.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Colombo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Samuel Vincent Ruggeri M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Jaden Weekes M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/09 | Charles Chen M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 10/09 | Fabrizio Andaloro M25 Pozzuoli |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Filippo Pecorini M25 Pozzuoli |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 31/08 | Olle Wallin Challenger Como · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/08 | Gianmarco Ferrari Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/08 | Goncalo Marques M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 21/08 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/08 | Matias Reyniak M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Ewen Lumsden
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Toby Martin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 24/09 | Mae Malige M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 22/09 | Alexander Watanabe Eriksson M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/09 | Kasra Rahmani M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Ergi Kirkin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/09 | William Nolan M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Jacopo Denitto M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/05 | Kyle Mckay UTR Pro Stirling · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/05 | Cian McDonnell UTR Pro Stirling · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/05 | Liam Hignett UTR Pro Stirling · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Colombo vs Ewen Lumsden?
Our model gives 52% to Ewen Lumsden, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.