Tennis · Challenger Porto · 28/09, 15:30
Prediction: Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniel Rincon
Team pages: Grigor Dimitrov · Daniel Rincon
Prediction summary
Winner
Grigor Dimitrov
Daniel Rincon
Estimated games
24.6
Recent form · 10 last
Grigor Dimitrov
6-4 (W-L)
Daniel Rincon
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Grigor Dimitrov 1474 · Daniel Rincon 1471
| Grigor Dimitrov | Daniel Rincon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Grigor Dimitrov dominates on serve: 8.9 aces and 44.3% break avg.
- Note: Grigor Dimitrov makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Grigor Dimitrov | Daniel Rincon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.6 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-14.5 | 10.8-12.3 |
| Aces | 8.9 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 44.3% | 35.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Grigor Dimitrov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Holger Rune Davis Cup |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 18/09 | Elmer Moller Davis Cup |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 26/08 | Timofey Skatov US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Lorenzo Giustino US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 06/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-27 | L |
Daniel Rincon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Dino Prizmic Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 09/09 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Cassis · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/09 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/08 | Tomas Barrios Vera US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Jordan Lee US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 24/08 | Titouan Droguet US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 04/08 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniel Rincon?
Our model gives 65% to Grigor Dimitrov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.