Tennis · Challenger Bari · 28/09, 11:30
Prediction: Federico Arnaboldi vs Svyatoslav Gulin
Team pages: Federico Arnaboldi · Svyatoslav Gulin
Prediction summary
Winner
Federico Arnaboldi
Svyatoslav Gulin
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Federico Arnaboldi
5-5 (W-L)
Svyatoslav Gulin
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Arnaboldi 1489 · Svyatoslav Gulin 1566
| Federico Arnaboldi | Svyatoslav Gulin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Svyatoslav Gulin (rating 1489 vs 1566).
- Svyatoslav Gulin is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Federico Arnaboldi makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Federico Arnaboldi | Svyatoslav Gulin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-12.4 | 11.7-10.1 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 4 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 43.9% | 30% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Arnaboldi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Federico Iannaccone Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 23/09 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Florian Broska Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/09 | Maximilian Marterer Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 07/09 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 06/09 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Gabriele Crivellaro Challenger Todi · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Svyatoslav Gulin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Andrej Martin Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/09 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Martin Krumich Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 25/08 | Henri Haupt Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Arnaboldi vs Svyatoslav Gulin?
Our model gives 61% to Svyatoslav Gulin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.