Tennis · Challenger Porto · 29/09, 11:00
Prediction: David Jorda Sanchis vs Jesper De Jong
Team pages: David Jorda Sanchis · Jesper De Jong
Prediction summary
Winner
David Jorda Sanchis
Jesper De Jong
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
David Jorda Sanchis
2-8 (W-L)
Jesper De Jong
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · David Jorda Sanchis 1432 · Jesper De Jong 1519
| David Jorda Sanchis | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jesper De Jong (rating 1432 vs 1519).
- David Jorda Sanchis dominates on serve: 6 aces and 40% break avg.
- Jesper De Jong dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 50.2% break avg.
- Jesper De Jong is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Jesper De Jong makes many double faults (6.9/match).
Statistics
| David Jorda Sanchis | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.7 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-12.7 | 13.8-12.7 |
| Aces | 6 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 6.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 75.8% |
| Break % | 40% | 50.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
David Jorda Sanchis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Dino Prizmic Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Dusan Lajovic US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 25/08 | Henri Squire US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 18/08 | Alan Magadan Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Pedro Martinez ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Jesper De Jong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Harold Mayot Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 24/09 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 22/09 | Remy Bertola Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 19/09 | Samuel Heredia Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Zizou Bergs US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-21 | L |
| 02/09 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 24-19 | W |
| 24/08 | Adam Walton ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/08 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in David Jorda Sanchis vs Jesper De Jong?
Our model gives 72% to Jesper De Jong, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.