Tennis · Challenger Porto · 27/09, 12:00
Prediction: Carl Emil Overbeck vs Fausto Tabacco
Team pages: Carl Emil Overbeck · Fausto Tabacco
Prediction summary
Winner
Carl Emil Overbeck
Fausto Tabacco
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Carl Emil Overbeck
8-2 (W-L)
Fausto Tabacco
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carl Emil Overbeck 1544 · Fausto Tabacco 1545
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Fausto Tabacco | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Carl Emil Overbeck dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Note: Fausto Tabacco makes many double faults (7.2/match).
Statistics
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Fausto Tabacco | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-9.9 | 12.4-10.8 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 7.2 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 64.2% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 48.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carl Emil Overbeck
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Ryan Peniston Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Fano |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Tobia Grandinetti M25 Fano |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/08 | Petr Nesterov M25 Gentofte |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Fausto Tabacco
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre M25 Setubal |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Jack Anthrop M25 Setubal |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 20/09 | Patrick Schoen M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/09 | Lui Maxted M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/09 | Adria Soriano Barrera M25 Sintra |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 16/09 | Pierre Antoine Tailleu M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/09 | Goncalo Marques M25 Sintra |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 11/09 | Tiago Cacao M25 Sintra |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 10/09 | Alen Mujakic M25 Sintra |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carl Emil Overbeck vs Fausto Tabacco?
Our model gives 59% to Carl Emil Overbeck, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.