Tennis · W35 Santa Margherita · 25/09, 10:00
Prediction: Tena Lukas vs Alisa Oktiabreva
Team pages: Tena Lukas · Alisa Oktiabreva
Prediction summary
Winner
Tena Lukas
Alisa Oktiabreva
Estimated games
19.7
Recent form · 10 last
Tena Lukas
5-5 (W-L)
Alisa Oktiabreva
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tena Lukas
0–1
Alisa Oktiabreva
(1 last)
- 06 Feb1-2 14-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tena Lukas 1523 · Alisa Oktiabreva 1601
| Tena Lukas | Alisa Oktiabreva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alisa Oktiabreva (rating 1523 vs 1601).
- Head-to-head: Tena Lukas 0–1 Alisa Oktiabreva (1).
- Note: Tena Lukas makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Tena Lukas | Alisa Oktiabreva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-7.8 | 11.2-7.4 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.1% | 61.7% |
| Break % | 57.1% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
H2H · Tena Lukas 0 – 1 Alisa Oktiabreva (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tena Lukas 0–1 Alisa Oktiabreva
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/25 W35 Antalya | 1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tena Lukas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Sara Cakarevic W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/09 | Verena Meliss W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 9-0 | W |
| 13/09 | Madison Sieg WTA Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Nastasja Schunk WTA Antalya · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Aya Akan WTA Antalya · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 28/08 | Nastasja Schunk W50 Oldenzaal |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Joy De Zeeuw W50 Oldenzaal |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Arina Gabriela Vasilescu W50 Oldenzaal |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Lola Giza W35 Erwitte |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Leticia Solakov W35 Erwitte |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Alisa Oktiabreva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Daria Yesypchuk W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/09 | Sofia Shapatava W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/09 | Marta Lombardini W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 19/09 | Franziska Sziedat W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Matilde Paoletti W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Laura Boehner W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/09 | Mia Horvit W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/07 | Oceane Dodin WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Yue Yuan WTA Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/04 | Francesca Curmi WTA Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tena Lukas vs Alisa Oktiabreva?
Our model gives 72% to Alisa Oktiabreva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.