Tennis · M25 Sharm El Sheikh · 24/09, 09:00
Prediction: Luca Castagnola vs Fares Zakaria
Team pages: Luca Castagnola · Fares Zakaria
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castagnola
Fares Zakaria
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castagnola
5-5 (W-L)
Fares Zakaria
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castagnola 1498 · Fares Zakaria 1509
| Luca Castagnola | Fares Zakaria | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Luca Castagnola makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Luca Castagnola | Fares Zakaria | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-10.8 | 11.1-10.6 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 5 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 72% |
| Break % | 38.9% | 39.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Jan Hrazdil M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 06/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Matic Hribar M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Stefan Popovic M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 18/08 | Maximilian Figl M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Bruno Fernandez M15 Trier |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Georgi Georgiev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Yoan Naydenov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Fares Zakaria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Andriy Poritskyy M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/09 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Arda Azkara Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 06/09 | Mert Naci Turker Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Alex Knaff M25 Bagneres-de-Bigorre |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Hady Habib M25 Bagneres-de-Bigorre |
2-0 | 7-0 | W |
| 02/09 | Mathys Picard M25 Bagneres-de-Bigorre |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/08 | Alexis Gautier Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 18/08 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Vincent Reisach M15 Warsaw |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castagnola vs Fares Zakaria?
Our model gives 57% to Fares Zakaria, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.