Prediction: Yexin Ma vs Kimberly Birrell
Team pages: Yexin Ma · Kimberly Birrell
Prediction summary
Winner
Yexin Ma
Kimberly Birrell
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Yexin Ma
7-3 (W-L)
Kimberly Birrell
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Yexin Ma
2–1
Kimberly Birrell
(3 last)
- 29 Jul2-0 13-10W
- 05 Feb0-2 4-12L
- 02 Feb2-0 14-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yexin Ma 1549 · Kimberly Birrell 1458
| Yexin Ma | Kimberly Birrell | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yexin Ma (rating 1549 vs 1458).
- Yexin Ma is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Yexin Ma 2–1 Kimberly Birrell (3).
- Note: Kimberly Birrell makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Yexin Ma | Kimberly Birrell | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.6 | 9.6-12.5 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 7 |
| 1st serve % | 67.3% | 61.9% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 54.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
H2H · Yexin Ma 2 – 1 Kimberly Birrell (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yexin Ma 2–1 Kimberly Birrell
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/26 WTA Memphis | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/02/25 W75 Brisbane | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/02/23 ITF W60 Burnie | 2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yexin Ma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Emerson Jones WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 20/09 | Eunhye Lee WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/09 | Carol Zhao WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/09 | Tahlia Kokkinis W50 Guiyang |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Kristiana Sidorova W50 Guiyang |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Jiaqi Wang W75 Tianjin |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/09 | Yujia Huang W75 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Clara Burel US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Katrina Scott W100 Landisville |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Clervie Ngounoue W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Kimberly Birrell
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Ekaterina Alexandrova US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 31/08 | Petra Marcinko US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/08 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Yexin Ma WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Sorana Cirstea Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Alina Korneeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Petra Marcinko WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yexin Ma vs Kimberly Birrell?
Our model gives 53% to Kimberly Birrell, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.