Tennis · M25 Sharm El Sheikh · 23/09, 09:00
Prediction: Jan Hrazdil vs Luca Castagnola
Team pages: Jan Hrazdil · Luca Castagnola
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan Hrazdil
Luca Castagnola
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jan Hrazdil
3-7 (W-L)
Luca Castagnola
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan Hrazdil 1435 · Luca Castagnola 1493
| Jan Hrazdil | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Castagnola (rating 1435 vs 1493).
- Note: Luca Castagnola makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Jan Hrazdil | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 40% |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.6 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.1-10.8 | 9.5-11.4 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 60% | 64.1% |
| Break % | 27.7% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan Hrazdil
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Preston Brown M15 Pecs |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Michael Agwi M15 Krakow |
0-2 | 3-8 | L |
| 18/08 | Wiktor Jez M15 Krakow |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/08 | Linus Lagerbohm M15 Bielsko Biala |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Matteo Fondriest M15 Bielsko Biala |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Tiago Pereira M25 Koszalin |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Tomas Lanik M25 Ollersbach |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Matteo Fondriest M15 Nova Gorica |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Niklas Guttau M15 Rzeszow · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Tudor Batin M15 Gyula · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Matic Hribar M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Stefan Popovic M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 18/08 | Maximilian Figl M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Bruno Fernandez M15 Trier |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Georgi Georgiev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Yoan Naydenov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan Hrazdil vs Luca Castagnola?
Our model gives 66% to Luca Castagnola, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.