Tennis · ATP Chengdu · 24/09, 06:00
Prediction: Nuno Borges vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Team pages: Nuno Borges · Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Nuno Borges
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nuno Borges
5-5 (W-L)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nuno Borges 1534 · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1466
| Nuno Borges | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nuno Borges (rating 1534 vs 1466).
- Note: Camilo Ugo Carabelli makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Nuno Borges | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.2-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.8 | 13.1-14.5 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 5 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 78.6% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 38% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3
Over 21.5: 70% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 30% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nuno Borges
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 18/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/08 | Thanasi Kokkinakis ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 08/08 | Luciano Darderi ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Marko Topo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 27/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Emilio Nava French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nuno Borges vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
Our model gives 71% to Nuno Borges, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.