Prediction: Cristian Garin vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Team pages: Cristian Garin · Daniel Merida Aguilar
Prediction summary
Winner
Cristian Garin
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Cristian Garin
6-4 (W-L)
Daniel Merida Aguilar
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cristian Garin 1496 · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1545
| Cristian Garin | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Merida Aguilar (rating 1496 vs 1545).
Statistics
| Cristian Garin | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-12.4 | 14.1-11.2 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 73.8% |
| Break % | 46.6% | 43.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cristian Garin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Rafael Jodar Davis Cup |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Elias Ymer US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Spencer Johnson US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 26/05 | Learner Tien French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 8-20 | L |
| 16/05 | Henri Squire ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 09/05 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/05 | Jan Choinski ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 04/05 | Moez Echargui ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Alejandro Tabilo Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrey Rublev US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-17 | W |
| 30/08 | Marton Fucsovics US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cristian Garin vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?
Our model gives 65% to Daniel Merida Aguilar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.