Prediction: Jelena Ostapenko vs Anastasia Zakharova
Team pages: Jelena Ostapenko · Anastasia Zakharova
Prediction summary
Winner
Jelena Ostapenko
Anastasia Zakharova
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Jelena Ostapenko
6-4 (W-L)
Anastasia Zakharova
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jelena Ostapenko
1–0
Anastasia Zakharova
(1 last)
- 09 Feb2-1 18-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jelena Ostapenko 1524 · Anastasia Zakharova 1466
| Jelena Ostapenko | Anastasia Zakharova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jelena Ostapenko (rating 1524 vs 1466).
- Head-to-head: Jelena Ostapenko 1–0 Anastasia Zakharova (1).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (8.3/match).
Statistics
| Jelena Ostapenko | Anastasia Zakharova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-9.3 | 10.1-9.4 |
| Aces | 5 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 8.3 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 58.6% |
| Break % | 52.8% | 43.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
H2H · Jelena Ostapenko 1 – 0 Anastasia Zakharova (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jelena Ostapenko 1–0 Anastasia Zakharova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/26 WTA Doha | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Tatjana Maria US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/06 | Harriet Dart Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Panna Udvardy WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Francesca Jones WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/05 | Magda Linette French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 25/05 | Ella Seidel French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Anastasia Zakharova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 25/08 | Kylie Collins WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Hanne Vandewinkel W100 Landisville |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 09/08 | Katrina Scott W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/08 | Ayana Akli W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/08 | Fiona Crawley W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Tatiana Prozorova W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/08 | Renata Zarazua WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jelena Ostapenko vs Anastasia Zakharova?
Our model gives 59% to Jelena Ostapenko, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.