Prediction: Joao Fonseca vs Stan Wawrinka
Team pages: Joao Fonseca · Stan Wawrinka
Prediction summary
Winner
Joao Fonseca
Stan Wawrinka
Estimated games
26.6
Recent form · 10 last
Joao Fonseca
5-5 (W-L)
Stan Wawrinka
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joao Fonseca 1551 · Stan Wawrinka 1392
| Joao Fonseca | Stan Wawrinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Joao Fonseca (rating 1551 vs 1392).
- Joao Fonseca is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Joao Fonseca | Stan Wawrinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 0.7-2.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.6 | 13.5-16.8 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 9.3 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 65.7% | 73.1% |
| Break % | 47.4% | 21% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joao Fonseca
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Dominic Stephan Stricker Davis Cup |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 16/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Casper Ruud ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Jesper De Jong Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
Stan Wawrinka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Gustavo Heide Davis Cup |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 31/08 | Matteo Berrettini US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 12-20 | L |
| 21/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 14/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 07/06 | Arthur Rinderknech Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/06 | Corentin Moutet Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Jesper De Jong French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-21 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joao Fonseca vs Stan Wawrinka?
Our model gives 75% to Joao Fonseca, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.