Prediction: Carol Zhao vs Yexin Ma
Team pages: Carol Zhao · Yexin Ma
Prediction summary
Winner
Carol Zhao
Yexin Ma
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Carol Zhao
2-8 (W-L)
Yexin Ma
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Carol Zhao
2–0
Yexin Ma
(2 last)
- 08 Jul2-0 12-6W
- 12 May2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carol Zhao 1442 · Yexin Ma 1491
| Carol Zhao | Yexin Ma | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yexin Ma (rating 1442 vs 1491).
- Yexin Ma is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Carol Zhao 2–0 Yexin Ma (2).
- Note: Carol Zhao makes many double faults (7.3/match).
Statistics
| Carol Zhao | Yexin Ma | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.8 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.8-12.9 | 10.9-11.5 |
| Aces | 4 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 7.3 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60.7% | 62.3% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 43.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Carol Zhao 2 – 0 Yexin Ma (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carol Zhao 2–0 Yexin Ma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/25 WTA Newport | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/05/23 ITF W60 Fukuoka | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carol Zhao
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Magda Linette WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Emerson Jones WTA Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Justina Mikulskyte Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Celine Naef WTA Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Katarina Zavatska French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Yidi Yang WTA Jiujiang · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/05 | Peangtarn Plipuech WTA Jiujiang · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 27/04 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Huzhou · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Lin Zhu W100 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Yexin Ma
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Tahlia Kokkinis W50 Guiyang |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Kristiana Sidorova W50 Guiyang |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Jiaqi Wang W75 Tianjin |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/09 | Yujia Huang W75 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Clara Burel US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Katrina Scott W100 Landisville |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Clervie Ngounoue W100 Landisville |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Caty McNally WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Kimberly Birrell WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/07 | Aoi Ito WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carol Zhao vs Yexin Ma?
Our model gives 62% to Yexin Ma, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.