Tennis · W35 Hurghada · 18/09, 09:00

Prediction: Ekaterina Perelygina vs Laia Petretic

Team pages: Ekaterina Perelygina · Laia Petretic

Prediction summary

Winner

65% 35%

Ekaterina Perelygina Laia Petretic

Estimated games

20.9

Recent form · 10 last

Ekaterina Perelygina 5-5 (W-L)

LLWLLWWLWW

Laia Petretic 6-4 (W-L)

LLWWWLWLWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ekaterina Perelygina 1544 · Laia Petretic 1497

	Ekaterina Perelygina	Laia Petretic
Our model	57%	43%
Market	71%	29%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ekaterina Perelygina (rating 1544 vs 1497).
Note: Ekaterina Perelygina makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Note: Laia Petretic makes many double faults (6.3/match).

Statistics

	Ekaterina Perelygina	Laia Petretic
Win %	60%	40%
Win % · Clay	67% (9)	44% (9)
Sets (G-P)	1.2-1	1.1-1.2
Games (G-P)	9.5-7.9	10.9-11
Aces	0.7	0.9
Double faults	5.7	6.3
1st serve %	56.8%	59.6%
Break %	51.8%	48.1%

Estimated total games (ours) 20.9

Odds Bet365

11.33

23.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	2
15:27 +8’	1.33	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ekaterina Perelygina

WWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
17/09	Olga Danilova W35 Hurghada · ~Clay	2-1	16-12	W
16/09	Minel Naz Kaynak W35 Hurghada · ~Clay	2-0	12-0	W
27/08	Samira De Stefano W50 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	9-13	L
26/08	Lejla Hana Golubovic W50 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	12-2	W
24/08	Sara Mikaca W50 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-0	13-9	W
23/08	Alexa Karatancheva W50 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	2-1	14-8	W
17/08	Rada Zolotareva W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	4-12	L
16/08	Yujia Huang W75 Kursumlijska Banja Qual · ~Clay	2-0	12-4	W
09/08	Matilde Paoletti W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	2-7	L
21/07	Julia Grabher W100 Amstetten	0-2	1-12	L

Laia Petretic

LWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
17/09	Yasmin Ezzat W35 Hurghada · ~Clay	2-0	12-7	W
16/09	Alize Lim W35 Hurghada · ~Clay	2-0	13-9	W
10/09	Wozuko Mdlulwa W15 Hurghada · ~Clay	0-2	10-13	L
09/09	Andrea Roots W15 Hurghada · ~Clay	2-0	12-3	W
04/09	Elina Nepliy W15 Hurghada · ~Clay	1-2	14-18	L
03/09	Viola Bedini W15 Hurghada · ~Clay	2-0	13-7	W
26/08	Emilia Brune W15 Hurghada · ~Clay	1-2	13-13	L
18/08	Angella Okutoyi W35 Verbier	1-2	14-16	L
29/07	Petra Konjikusic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	5-12	L
23/07	Rikke De Koning W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay	0-2	3-12	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ekaterina Perelygina vs Laia Petretic?

Our model gives 65% to Ekaterina Perelygina, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.