Tennis · M25 Sintra · 16/09, 11:00
Prediction: Lui Maxted vs Goncalo Marques
Team pages: Lui Maxted · Goncalo Marques
Prediction summary
Winner
Lui Maxted
Goncalo Marques
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Lui Maxted
7-3 (W-L)
Goncalo Marques
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lui Maxted 1530 · Goncalo Marques 1540
| Lui Maxted | Goncalo Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Lui Maxted | Goncalo Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-11.5 | 11.7-9.8 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 54.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lui Maxted
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Johannus Monday Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 24/08 | Anton Shepp Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 18/08 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/08 | Charles Broom M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 07/08 | Mark Ceban M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Marcus Walters M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Goncalo Marques
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Patrick Schoen M25 Sintra |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Fausto Tabacco M25 Sintra |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 11/09 | Finn Murgett M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/09 | Tomas Curras Abasolo M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Lucas Nunez M25 Sintra |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 31/08 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Pavel Lagutin M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Andrea Colombo M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 21/08 | Tristan McCormick M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 20/08 | Fabrizio Andaloro M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lui Maxted vs Goncalo Marques?
Our model gives 54% to Lui Maxted, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.