Tennis · WTA Sao Paulo · 15/09, 18:00
Prediction: Leylah Annie Fernandez vs Hayu Kinoshita
Team pages: Leylah Annie Fernandez · Hayu Kinoshita
Prediction summary
Winner
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Hayu Kinoshita
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Leylah Annie Fernandez
7-3 (W-L)
Hayu Kinoshita
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1521 · Hayu Kinoshita 1462
| Leylah Annie Fernandez | Hayu Kinoshita | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 89% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leylah Annie Fernandez (rating 1521 vs 1462).
- Note: Hayu Kinoshita makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Leylah Annie Fernandez | Hayu Kinoshita | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-9 | 10-11.6 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 57.8% |
| Break % | 48% | 49.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Jessica Pegula US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Shuai Zhang US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 10/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/08 | Renata Zarazua WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/07 | Magda Linette WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Janice Tjen Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Hayu Kinoshita
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Cadence Brace WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/09 | Victoria Rodriguez WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Oceane Dodin W50 Leiria |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Rebecca Munk Mortensen W50 Leiria |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Darja Semenistaja US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Kyoka Okamura WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Elvina Kalieva W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Sakura Hosogi W75 Granby |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Iryna Shymanovich WTA Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leylah Annie Fernandez vs Hayu Kinoshita?
Our model gives 75% to Leylah Annie Fernandez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.