Tennis · WTA Sao Paulo · 15/09, 16:00
Prediction: Darja Semenistaja vs Paula Badosa
Team pages: Darja Semenistaja · Paula Badosa
Prediction summary
Winner
Darja Semenistaja
Paula Badosa
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Darja Semenistaja
3-7 (W-L)
Paula Badosa
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Darja Semenistaja 1426 · Paula Badosa 1591
| Darja Semenistaja | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 72% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paula Badosa (rating 1426 vs 1591).
- Paula Badosa is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (6.6/match).
Statistics
| Darja Semenistaja | Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (5) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-13.1 | 13.4-10.8 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 6.6 |
| 1st serve % | 53.8% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 38.7% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Darja Semenistaja
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Anastasia Tikhonova WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 01/09 | Anastasia Potapova US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Storm Hunter US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Alexandra Shubladze US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Hayu Kinoshita US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Denislava Glushkova W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 28/07 | Mia Ristic WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Sinja Kraus WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/07 | Julia Riera WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 06/07 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Paula Badosa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Daria Kasatkina US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/07 | Mayar Sherif WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 23/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Darja Semenistaja vs Paula Badosa?
Our model gives 79% to Paula Badosa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.