Tennis · Challenger Phan Thiet Qual · 13/09, 08:00
Prediction: Egor Agafonov vs Taiyo Yamanaka
Team pages: Egor Agafonov · Taiyo Yamanaka
Prediction summary
Winner
Egor Agafonov
Taiyo Yamanaka
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Egor Agafonov
2-8 (W-L)
Taiyo Yamanaka
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Egor Agafonov
2–0
Taiyo Yamanaka
(2 last)
- 12 Sept2-0 13-7W
- 05 Sept2-0 14-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Egor Agafonov 1422 · Taiyo Yamanaka 1500
| Egor Agafonov | Taiyo Yamanaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Taiyo Yamanaka (rating 1422 vs 1500).
- Taiyo Yamanaka is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Egor Agafonov 2–0 Taiyo Yamanaka (2).
- Note: Egor Agafonov makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Egor Agafonov | Taiyo Yamanaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 17% (6) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.6 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.2-11.9 | 9.3-9.9 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 36.4% | 25.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
H2H · Egor Agafonov 2 – 0 Taiyo Yamanaka (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Egor Agafonov 2–0 Taiyo Yamanaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/25 M15 Maanshan | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/09/25 M15 Maanshan | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Egor Agafonov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Radu David Turcanu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Alec Deckers Challenger Astana · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 06/08 | Martin Borisiouk M15 Astana |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Kacper Knitter M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 28/05 | Ivan Iutkin M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Dmitrii Burtsev M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/03 | Daniil Sarksian M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 17/03 | Karlis Ozolins M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/03 | Maxim Zhukov M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/03 | Xing Dao Chen M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Taiyo Yamanaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Nikita Ianin Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/08 | Shinji Hazawa M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 2-8 | L |
| 11/08 | Weiyi Kong M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/08 | Shunsuke Mitsui M15 Astana |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 06/08 | Sergey Petrov M15 Astana |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 10/07 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Hikaru Shiraishi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Ren Nakamura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Moerani Bouzige M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Egor Agafonov vs Taiyo Yamanaka?
Our model gives 55% to Taiyo Yamanaka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.