Tennis · UTR Pro Sydney · 15/09, 02:30
Prediction: Haruto Ishikawa vs Jera Staley
Team pages: Haruto Ishikawa · Jera Staley
Prediction summary
Winner
Haruto Ishikawa
Jera Staley
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Haruto Ishikawa
6-4 (W-L)
Jera Staley
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Haruto Ishikawa
3–1
Jera Staley
(4 last)
- 18 Nov2-0 12-7W
- 28 Aug2-1 17-18W
- 18 Aug2-0 12-7W
- 30 May1-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Haruto Ishikawa 1495 · Jera Staley 1565
| Haruto Ishikawa | Jera Staley | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jera Staley (rating 1495 vs 1565).
- Jera Staley is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Haruto Ishikawa 3–1 Jera Staley (4).
Statistics
| Haruto Ishikawa | Jera Staley | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-11.1 | 11.8-7.7 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 63.3% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 50.1% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
H2H · Haruto Ishikawa 3 – 1 Jera Staley (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Haruto Ishikawa 3–1 Jera Staley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/25 UTR Pro Lovedale | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/08/25 UTR Pro Gold Coast | 2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 18/08/25 UTR Pro Gold Coast | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/05/25 UTR Pro Lovedale | 1-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Haruto Ishikawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Jeremy Beale UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Yan Cheng Chen M15 Bali |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 07/09 | Stefan Storch M15 Bali |
2-1 | 9-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Gunawan Trismuwantara M15 Bali |
1-2 | 10-11 | L |
| 30/08 | Ashwin Ryan Sharma M15 Bali |
2-1 | 10-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Casey Hoole UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Sam Wensley UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 19/08 | Tomislav Edward Papac UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/08 | Scott Jones UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 17/08 | Charlie Pade UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Jera Staley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Jerome Estephan UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/09 | Matthew Burton UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | James Girdler UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/09 | Cameron Burton UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 08/09 | Jesse Gothelf UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/09 | Casey Hoole UTR Pro Sydney · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Cody Atkinson UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 27/08 | Jacob Cairncross UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Kuma Ito UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | James Girdler UTR Pro Gold Coast · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Haruto Ishikawa vs Jera Staley?
Our model gives 68% to Jera Staley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.