Tennis · Challenger Genoa · 10/09, 10:00
Prediction: Hugo Dellien vs Matej Dodig
Team pages: Hugo Dellien · Matej Dodig
Prediction summary
Winner
Hugo Dellien
Matej Dodig
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Hugo Dellien
6-4 (W-L)
Matej Dodig
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hugo Dellien
2–0
Matej Dodig
(2 last)
- 12 Jul2-1 17-13W
- 20 May2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Dellien 1602 · Matej Dodig 1578
| Hugo Dellien | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matej Dodig dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 55% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Hugo Dellien 2–0 Matej Dodig (2).
Statistics
| Hugo Dellien | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 83% (6) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.8 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-9 | 13.2-9.9 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 65.4% | 79.1% |
| Break % | 50.1% | 55% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Hugo Dellien 2 – 0 Matej Dodig (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hugo Dellien 2–0 Matej Dodig
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 Challenger Trieste | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 20/05/26 French Open | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Dellien
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/09 | Facundo Mena Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Pedro Vives Marcos Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Miguel Damas Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/09 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Moez Echargui US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Matej Dodig
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Johan Nikles Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 02/09 | Henry Bernet Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/08 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Hagen · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Dellien vs Matej Dodig?
Our model gives 56% to Hugo Dellien, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.