Tennis · M25 Sapporo · 09/09, 03:00
Prediction: Naoki Nakagawa vs Jerry Roddick
Team pages: Naoki Nakagawa · Jerry Roddick
Prediction summary
Winner
Naoki Nakagawa
Jerry Roddick
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Naoki Nakagawa
8-2 (W-L)
Jerry Roddick
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naoki Nakagawa 1609 · Jerry Roddick 1476
| Naoki Nakagawa | Jerry Roddick | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naoki Nakagawa (rating 1609 vs 1476).
- Naoki Nakagawa dominates on serve: 7 aces and 49% break avg.
- Naoki Nakagawa is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Naoki Nakagawa | Jerry Roddick | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 0.9-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-8.8 | 9.5-8.8 |
| Aces | 7 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 82.3% | 68.5% |
| Break % | 49% | 55.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naoki Nakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Kuan-Yi Lee M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Ryota Tanuma M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Naoya Honda M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Yua Taka M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Max Sheldon M25 East Lansing |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Cooper Woestendick M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 06/08 | Clement Chidekh M25 Southaven |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 19/07 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jerry Roddick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Ryuichiro Nakano M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/09 | Taisei Ichikawa M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Yamato Sueoka M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 11/08 | Joshua Peck M25 East Lansing |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Bruno Kuzuhara M25 Edwardsville |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Jon Gamble M25 Edwardsville |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Karim Bennani M25 Champaign |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Luca Pow M25 Louisville |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Bruno Kuzuhara M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Wesley Cotton M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naoki Nakagawa vs Jerry Roddick?
Our model gives 71% to Naoki Nakagawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.