Tennis · WTA Barranquilla · 08/09, 17:00
Prediction: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Mary Stoiana
Team pages: Jazmin Ortenzi · Mary Stoiana
Prediction summary
Winner
Jazmin Ortenzi
Mary Stoiana
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Jazmin Ortenzi
5-5 (W-L)
Mary Stoiana
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jazmin Ortenzi 1463 · Mary Stoiana 1524
| Jazmin Ortenzi | Mary Stoiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 9% | 91% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mary Stoiana (rating 1463 vs 1524).
- Jazmin Ortenzi dominates on serve: 10.1 aces and 51.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Jazmin Ortenzi | Mary Stoiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.4-11.7 | 12.3-12.3 |
| Aces | 10.1 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 56.1% | 64.1% |
| Break % | 51.9% | 49% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jazmin Ortenzi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Himeno Sakatsume US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Katherine Sebov Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 18/06 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Francesca Pace WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Viola Turini WTA Modena · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 04/06 | Marta Lombardini W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Beatrice Ricci W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Alina Korneeva French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 18/05 | Arantxa Rus French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
Mary Stoiana
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Alexandra Eala US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Yue Yuan US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Katie Swan US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/08 | Harmony Tan US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Oksana Selekhmeteva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 11/08 | Veronika Erjavec WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Peyton Stearns WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Yeon Woo Ku W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jazmin Ortenzi vs Mary Stoiana?
Our model gives 77% to Mary Stoiana, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.