Tennis · WTA Antalya · 08/09, 09:00
Prediction: Federica Urgesi vs Miriam Bulgaru
Team pages: Federica Urgesi · Miriam Bulgaru
Prediction summary
Winner
Federica Urgesi
Miriam Bulgaru
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Federica Urgesi
5-5 (W-L)
Miriam Bulgaru
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Federica Urgesi
1–0
Miriam Bulgaru
(1 last)
- 10 Jun2-1 17-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federica Urgesi 1533 · Miriam Bulgaru 1464
| Federica Urgesi | Miriam Bulgaru | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Federica Urgesi (rating 1533 vs 1464).
- Head-to-head: Federica Urgesi 1–0 Miriam Bulgaru (1).
Statistics
| Federica Urgesi | Miriam Bulgaru | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 0.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-10.2 | 8.4-9.5 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 61.9% | 56.6% |
| Break % | 55.4% | 55% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
H2H · Federica Urgesi 1 – 0 Miriam Bulgaru (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Federica Urgesi 1–0 Miriam Bulgaru
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/25 WTA Grado | 2-1 | 17-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federica Urgesi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Clara Burel W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/09 | Maria Lourdes Carle W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Oceane Babel W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Lia Karatancheva W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/08 | Justina Mikulskyte W75 Bytom |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 26/08 | Dalila Jakupovic W75 Bytom |
2-0 | 7-2 | W |
| 05/08 | Martha Matoula W75 Koksijde |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Amelie Van Impe W75 Koksijde |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 30/07 | Barbora Palicova W75 Hechingen |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Diana Martynov W75 Hechingen |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Miriam Bulgaru
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Maria Golovina W50 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-10 | L |
| 26/08 | Alina Yuneva W50 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Samira De Stefano W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Natalija Senic W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Carole Monnet WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Francesca Jones WTA Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Caijsa Wilda Hennemann WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Elena Pridankina WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Valeriya Strakhova WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federica Urgesi vs Miriam Bulgaru?
Our model gives 67% to Federica Urgesi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.