Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 05/09, 04:00
Prediction: Ryotaro Matsumura vs Toshiki Karigyo
Team pages: Ryotaro Matsumura · Toshiki Karigyo
Prediction summary
Winner
Ryotaro Matsumura
Toshiki Karigyo
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Ryotaro Matsumura
8-2 (W-L)
Toshiki Karigyo
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ryotaro Matsumura
2–0
Toshiki Karigyo
(2 last)
- 18 Jan2-1 18-12W
- 06 Jan2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryotaro Matsumura 1569 · Toshiki Karigyo 1519
| Ryotaro Matsumura | Toshiki Karigyo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryotaro Matsumura (rating 1569 vs 1519).
- Head-to-head: Ryotaro Matsumura 2–0 Toshiki Karigyo (2).
- Note: Toshiki Karigyo makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Ryotaro Matsumura | Toshiki Karigyo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-8.4 | 11.3-11.2 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 1 | 6.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 60.1% |
| Break % | 49.4% | 40.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
H2H · Ryotaro Matsumura 2 – 0 Toshiki Karigyo (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ryotaro Matsumura 2–0 Toshiki Karigyo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/26 UTR Pro Yokohama | 2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/01/25 UTR Pro Noda | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryotaro Matsumura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Shingo Masuda UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/03 | Naoki Nakagawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/03 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 05/03 | Bence Boros UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/03 | Christopher Kosei Ono UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/03 | Yuga Tashiro UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/02 | Naoki Nakagawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Toshiki Karigyo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Taiyo Uenoyama UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/08 | Ye Chen M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Tsung-Hao Huang M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Ku Keon Kang M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 04/08 | Eric Jr. Olivarez M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 19/07 | Koyu Yanagi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Naoto Tomizawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Taiyo Kurata UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 14/07 | Christopher Rodi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Min Jae Kim UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryotaro Matsumura vs Toshiki Karigyo?
Our model gives 71% to Ryotaro Matsumura, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.