Tennis · Challenger Manacor · 01/09, 20:24
Prediction: Sebastian Ofner vs Edas Butvilas
Team pages: Sebastian Ofner · Edas Butvilas
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Ofner
Edas Butvilas
Estimated games
24
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Ofner
3-7 (W-L)
Edas Butvilas
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Ofner 1427 · Edas Butvilas 1548
| Sebastian Ofner | Edas Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Edas Butvilas (rating 1427 vs 1548).
- Edas Butvilas dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 49.2% break avg.
- Edas Butvilas is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Sebastian Ofner makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Sebastian Ofner | Edas Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (4) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.9 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-14.2 | 13.6-11.9 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 38.3% | 49.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Ofner
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Kei Nishikori US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 18/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Hamad Medjedovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-21 | W |
Edas Butvilas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/08 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 07/08 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 06/08 | Ozan Baris Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/07 | Clement Tabur ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 11/07 | Marc-Andrea Huesler ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Ofner vs Edas Butvilas?
Our model gives 58% to Edas Butvilas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.