Tennis · Challenger Como · 02/09, 10:00
Prediction: Henry Bernet vs Stefano Napolitano
Team pages: Henry Bernet · Stefano Napolitano
Prediction summary
Winner
Henry Bernet
Stefano Napolitano
Estimated games
24
Recent form · 10 last
Henry Bernet
7-3 (W-L)
Stefano Napolitano
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Henry Bernet 1537 · Stefano Napolitano 1476
| Henry Bernet | Stefano Napolitano | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Henry Bernet (rating 1537 vs 1476).
- Henry Bernet dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 48.8% break avg.
- Henry Bernet is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Henry Bernet makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Henry Bernet | Stefano Napolitano | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.9 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-11 | 11.7-12.8 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 4 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 78.3% | 66.9% |
| Break % | 48.8% | 35.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Henry Bernet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Adrien Burdet M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/08 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko M25 Lausanne |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 27/08 | Blu Baker M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Marko Maric M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/08 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Sion · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 18/08 | Johan Nikles Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/07 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Zug · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/07 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 09/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Stefano Napolitano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Mackenzie McDonald US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 27/07 | Alexandre Muller Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 13/07 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 30/05 | Edward Winter Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/05 | Philip Henning Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Henry Bernet vs Stefano Napolitano?
Our model gives 57% to Henry Bernet, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.