Tennis · Challenger Plovdiv · 01/09, 10:00
Prediction: Marko Topo vs Valerio Aboian
Team pages: Marko Topo · Valerio Aboian
Prediction summary
Winner
Marko Topo
Valerio Aboian
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Marko Topo
5-5 (W-L)
Valerio Aboian
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marko Topo
1–0
Valerio Aboian
(1 last)
- 27 Jul2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marko Topo 1466 · Valerio Aboian 1479
| Marko Topo | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Marko Topo dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 43.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Marko Topo 1–0 Valerio Aboian (1).
- Note: Marko Topo makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Marko Topo | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11.7 | 10.7-11.4 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.9% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 43.6% | 34.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Marko Topo 1 – 0 Valerio Aboian (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marko Topo 1–0 Valerio Aboian
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/26 Challenger Bonn | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marko Topo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Miguel Damas Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Hagen · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 03/08 | Dominik Recek Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/07 | Elmer Moller Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/07 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Leonardo Rossi Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Alexander Donski Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
Valerio Aboian
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Maribor |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 27/08 | Karlo Kajin M25 Maribor |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Nik Mikovic M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Aljaz Jeran M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Maximilian Homberg Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 27/07 | Marko Topo Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Yannic Nittmann Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marko Topo vs Valerio Aboian?
Our model gives 59% to Marko Topo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.