Tennis · Challenger Zhangjiagang · 01/09, 04:00
Prediction: Luca Castelnuovo vs Matthew Dellavedova
Team pages: Luca Castelnuovo · Matthew Dellavedova
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castelnuovo
Matthew Dellavedova
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castelnuovo
4-6 (W-L)
Matthew Dellavedova
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luca Castelnuovo
1–0
Matthew Dellavedova
(1 last)
- 10 Apr2-1 12-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castelnuovo 1507 · Matthew Dellavedova 1629
| Luca Castelnuovo | Matthew Dellavedova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matthew Dellavedova (rating 1507 vs 1629).
- Luca Castelnuovo dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 49.1% break avg.
- Matthew Dellavedova is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Luca Castelnuovo 1–0 Matthew Dellavedova (1).
Statistics
| Luca Castelnuovo | Matthew Dellavedova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.7-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-13 | 11.9-6.6 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 71.7% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 54.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
H2H · Luca Castelnuovo 1 – 0 Matthew Dellavedova (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luca Castelnuovo 1–0 Matthew Dellavedova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 M25 Maanshan | 2-1 | 12-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castelnuovo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Yanki Erel M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Max Basing Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Matthew Dellavedova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Kasidit Samrej M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/08 | Kristjan Tamm M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Tai Leonard Sach M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Keisuke Saitoh M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/08 | Yu Hsiou Hsu M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Shunsuke Mitsui M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Tai Leonard Sach M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/08 | Jeffrey Hsu M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/08 | Kousuke Ogura M15 Tianjin |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castelnuovo vs Matthew Dellavedova?
Our model gives 68% to Matthew Dellavedova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.