Prediction: Marin Cilic vs Andrey Rublev
Team pages: Marin Cilic · Andrey Rublev
Prediction summary
Winner
Marin Cilic
Andrey Rublev
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marin Cilic
3-7 (W-L)
Andrey Rublev
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marin Cilic
3–4
Andrey Rublev
(7 last)
- 01 Jun3-2 27-26W
- 22 Jan3-1 23-20W
- 18 Aug1-2 11-17L
- 31 Mar0-2 8-12L
- 19 Oct0-2 9-13L
- 23 Mar0-2 8-12L
- 19 May2-1 17-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marin Cilic 1445 · Andrey Rublev 1544
| Marin Cilic | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Rublev (rating 1445 vs 1544).
- Andrey Rublev is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Marin Cilic 3–4 Andrey Rublev (7).
Statistics
| Marin Cilic | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (2) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.8 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-14.7 | 14.7-12.2 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 9.6 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 76.4% |
| Break % | 31.4% | 38.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -13.6
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Marin Cilic 3 – 4 Andrey Rublev (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marin Cilic 3–4 Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/22 French Open | 3-2 | 27-26 | W |
| 22/01/22 Australian Open | 3-1 | 23-20 | W |
| 18/08/21 ATP Cincinnati | 1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 31/03/21 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/10/19 ATP Moscow | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/03/19 ATP Miami | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/05/15 ATP Geneva | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marin Cilic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 08/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 26/05 | Moise Kouame French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 09/05 | Martin Landaluce ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marin Cilic vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model gives 69% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.