Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Thanasi Kokkinakis
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Thanasi Kokkinakis
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Estimated games
26.5Bet365 line 33.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
6-4 (W-L)
Thanasi Kokkinakis
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1584 · Thanasi Kokkinakis 1518
| Rafael Jodar | Thanasi Kokkinakis | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rafael Jodar (rating 1584 vs 1518).
- Thanasi Kokkinakis dominates on serve: 13.2 aces and 48.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Thanasi Kokkinakis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-10.9 | 17.2-14.1 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 13.2 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 77.5% |
| Break % | 42.5% | 48.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.5 · Bet365 line 33.5 · -7
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 13/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Corentin Moutet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
| 22/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 21/07 | Evan Zhu Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-28 | L |
| 16/06 | Jerome Kym Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 16-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Ammar Elamin Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/06 | Harold Mayot Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 08/06 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/05 | Terence Atmane French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
| 11/05 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Thanasi Kokkinakis?
Our model gives 74% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.