Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 17:00
Prediction: Anastasia Potapova vs Tereza Valentova
Team pages: Anastasia Potapova · Tereza Valentova
Prediction summary
Winner
Anastasia Potapova
Tereza Valentova
Estimated games
21.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Anastasia Potapova
2-8 (W-L)
Tereza Valentova
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Anastasia Potapova 1484 · Tereza Valentova 1553
| Anastasia Potapova | Tereza Valentova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tereza Valentova (rating 1484 vs 1553).
- Note: Anastasia Potapova makes many double faults (5.5/match).
- Note: Tereza Valentova makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Anastasia Potapova | Tereza Valentova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-11.9 | 12-9.3 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63.5% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 48% | 39.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 50% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 50% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Anastasia Potapova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/07 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Venus Williams WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Suzan Lamens WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 01/06 | Anna Kalinskaya French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 30/05 | Coco Gauff French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 28/05 | Katie Boulter French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Tereza Valentova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Kylie Collins WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/08 | Fangran Tian WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Ariana Arseneault WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 14/08 | Mary Stoiana WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Daria Snigur WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 22/07 | Maya Joint WTA Prague · Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/07 | Priscilla Hon WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Anastasia Potapova vs Tereza Valentova?
Our model gives 62% to Tereza Valentova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.