Prediction: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin
Team pages: Toby Samuel · Cristian Garin
Prediction summary
Winner
Toby Samuel
Cristian Garin
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Toby Samuel
7-3 (W-L)
Cristian Garin
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toby Samuel 1593 · Cristian Garin 1503
| Toby Samuel | Cristian Garin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toby Samuel (rating 1593 vs 1503).
- Toby Samuel dominates on serve: 6 aces and 42.2% break avg.
- Toby Samuel is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Toby Samuel makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Toby Samuel | Cristian Garin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 89% (9) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-9.4 | 13.3-12.8 |
| Aces | 6 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73.4% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 42.2% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1
Over 22.5: 57% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 43% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Billy Harris US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Francesco Maestrelli US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 21/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-27 | L |
Cristian Garin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Elias Ymer US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/08 | Spencer Johnson US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 26/05 | Learner Tien French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 8-20 | L |
| 16/05 | Henri Squire ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 09/05 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/05 | Jan Choinski ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 04/05 | Moez Echargui ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/04 | Nuno Borges Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin?
Our model gives 65% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.