Prediction: Luca Nardi vs Federico Cina
Team pages: Luca Nardi · Federico Cina
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Nardi
Federico Cina
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Nardi
5-5 (W-L)
Federico Cina
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Nardi 1473 · Federico Cina 1524
| Luca Nardi | Federico Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Federico Cina (rating 1473 vs 1524).
- Federico Cina dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 44.8% break avg.
- Note: Federico Cina makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Luca Nardi | Federico Cina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (4) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-12.3 | 13.2-11.5 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 73.4% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.4
Over 22.5: 59% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 41% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Nardi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Rio Noguchi Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 14/06 | Giles Hussey Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 02/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/05 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Federico Cina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 05/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Elias Ymer Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 19/07 | Lorenzo Giustino ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Daniel Michalski ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 12/07 | Calvin Hemery ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/07 | Patrick Zahraj ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/07 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Nardi vs Federico Cina?
Our model gives 60% to Federico Cina, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.