Tennis · US Open Women · 24/08, 20:00
Prediction: Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini
Team pages: Lucia Bronzetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucia Bronzetti
Luisina Giovannini
Estimated games
20.8Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lucia Bronzetti
7-3 (W-L)
Luisina Giovannini
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucia Bronzetti 1591 · Luisina Giovannini 1534
| Lucia Bronzetti | Luisina Giovannini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 85% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucia Bronzetti (rating 1591 vs 1534).
- Luisina Giovannini dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 69.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Lucia Bronzetti | Luisina Giovannini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-9.3 | 11.3-8.1 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 60.9% | 63.5% |
| Break % | 54.9% | 69.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +2.3
Over 18.5: 65% · 1.72
Under 18.5: 35% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucia Bronzetti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Laura Samsonova WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Sara Sorribes Tormo WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 30/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Miriana Tona WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/07 | Fiona Ferro WTA Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Yasmine Kabbaj WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 23/07 | Dalila Spiteri WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Ilary Pistola WTA Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Francesca Jones WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Nuria Brancaccio WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Luisina Giovannini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Lucrezia Stefanini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 17/06 | Darya Astakhova WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/06 | Alessandra Mazzola WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 03/06 | Francesca Pace W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Kayla Day W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Nadia Podoroska W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/05 | Angelica Moratelli W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Delia Gaillard W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Ashlyn Krueger French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Eva Guerrero Alvarez French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucia Bronzetti vs Luisina Giovannini?
Our model gives 73% to Lucia Bronzetti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.