Tennis · WTA Philadelphia · 24/08, 16:00
Prediction: Fangran Tian vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon
Team pages: Fangran Tian · Lucciana Perez Alarcon
Prediction summary
Winner
Fangran Tian
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Fangran Tian
5-5 (W-L)
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fangran Tian 1474 · Lucciana Perez Alarcon 1546
| Fangran Tian | Lucciana Perez Alarcon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucciana Perez Alarcon (rating 1474 vs 1546).
- Lucciana Perez Alarcon is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Fangran Tian | Lucciana Perez Alarcon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (6) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-9.7 | 10.9-7.8 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 57.4% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 47% | 59.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fangran Tian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Mayu Crossley W35 Southaven |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Savannah Broadus W100 Cary · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Kylie Collins W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Amandine Hesse W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 25/06 | Viola Turini W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Belle Thompson W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/06 | Alina Korneeva WTA Figueira da Foz · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Ariana Arseneault W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Diana Marcinkevica W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/05 | Haruka Kaji W100 Takasaki · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Giorgia Pedone W35 Chacabuco |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Lorena Schaedel W35 Chacabuco |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/08 | Ana Victoria Gobbi Monllau W35 Chacabuco |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 04/08 | Melina Maria Maruca W35 Chacabuco |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 31/07 | Daria Egorova W35 Pergamino |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Luna Maria Cinalli W35 Pergamino |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/07 | Marina Bulbarella W35 Pergamino |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/07 | Julia Riera W75 Vacaria |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Daria Egorova W75 Vacaria |
2-1 | 15-18 | W |
| 24/07 | Pietra Rivoli W75 Vacaria |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fangran Tian vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon?
Our model gives 52% to Fangran Tian, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.