Tennis · Challenger Roehampton · 25/08, 11:00
Prediction: Jay Friend vs Michael Geerts
Team pages: Jay Friend · Michael Geerts
Prediction summary
Winner
Jay Friend
Michael Geerts
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Jay Friend
4-6 (W-L)
Michael Geerts
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jay Friend 1528 · Michael Geerts 1518
| Jay Friend | Michael Geerts | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Jay Friend makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Jay Friend | Michael Geerts | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12.1 | 11.3-11.9 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 4 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 66.7% |
| Break % | 26.7% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Colton Smith Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 01/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 30/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 28/07 | Connor Church Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 21/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Michael Geerts
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 19/08 | Radu Albot Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 18/08 | Billy Blaydes Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/08 | Lars Goran Verwerft M25 Koksijde |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 14/08 | Geoffrey Blancaneaux M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/08 | Nicolas Robert M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/08 | Martin Van Der Meerschen M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 20/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Pieter De Lange Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jay Friend vs Michael Geerts?
Our model gives 60% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.