Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 24/08, 17:00
Prediction: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Team pages: Pablo Carreno Busta · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Prediction summary
Winner
Pablo Carreno Busta
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Pablo Carreno Busta
8-2 (W-L)
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pablo Carreno Busta 1484 · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 1514
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.5 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-14.4 | 11.8-10.5 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.9% | 75% |
| Break % | 42.2% | 48.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.6
Over 21.5: 67% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 33% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 23/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Matej Dodig ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-22 | L |
| 31/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-26 | L |
| 29/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 15/08 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Kilian Feldbausch ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 17/07 | Stefano Travaglia ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 14/07 | Miguel Damas ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pablo Carreno Busta vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo?
Our model gives 54% to Pablo Carreno Busta, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.