Tennis · ATP Winston-Salem · 24/08, 17:00

Prediction: Lorenzo Sonego vs Vit Kopriva

Team pages: Lorenzo Sonego · Vit Kopriva

Prediction summary

Winner

59% 41%

Lorenzo Sonego Vit Kopriva

Estimated games

25.8Bet365 line 22.5

Recent form · 10 last

Lorenzo Sonego 7-3 (W-L)

WWWWWWLLWL

Vit Kopriva 4-6 (W-L)

WWLLLWLLWL

Head-to-head

Lorenzo Sonego 0–1 Vit Kopriva (1 last)

03 Apr1-2 13-17L

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lorenzo Sonego 1503 · Vit Kopriva 1463

	Lorenzo Sonego	Vit Kopriva
Our model	56%	44%
Market	62%	38%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Sonego (rating 1503 vs 1463).
Head-to-head: Lorenzo Sonego 0–1 Vit Kopriva (1).

Statistics

	Lorenzo Sonego	Vit Kopriva
Win %	50%	30%
Win % · Hard	33% (3)	40% (5)
Sets (G-P)	1.4-1.5	0.8-1.5
Games (G-P)	16-15.8	10.4-12.8
Aces	10.1	4.4
Double faults	1.9	3.4
1st serve %	74.4%	70.2%
Break %	36.4%	34.9%

Estimated total games (ours) 25.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.3

Over 22.5: 72% · 1.80 Under 22.5: 28% · 1.90

H2H · Lorenzo Sonego 0 – 1 Vit Kopriva (1)

Odds Bet365

11.53

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.83

2 (+2.5)1.83

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.2%

Time*	1	2
05:25 +12’	1.53	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Sonego 0–1 Vit Kopriva

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
03/04/25 ATP Marrakech	1-2	13-17	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lorenzo Sonego

WLLWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
17/08	Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard	0-2	7-12	L
14/08	Juncheng Shang ATP Cincinnati · Hard	2-0	12-6	W
04/08	Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard	0-2	11-14	L
15/07	Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay	0-2	12-14	L
13/07	Joel Schwaerzler ATP Gstaad · Clay	2-0	13-10	W
04/07	Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass	1-3	19-23	L
02/07	Gabriel Diallo Wimbledon · Grass	3-2	30-27	W
30/06	Tomas Martin Etcheverry Wimbledon · Grass	3-1	25-21	W
23/06	Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass	1-2	16-15	L
21/06	Mariano Navone ATP Mallorca · Grass	2-1	15-16	W

Vit Kopriva

WLLWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
22/08	Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard	0-2	9-13	L
20/08	Gauthier Onclin Challenger Cancun · Hard	2-0	12-8	W
14/08	Quentin Halys ATP Cincinnati · Hard	0-2	10-13	L
05/08	Jiri Lehecka ATP Montreal · Hard	0-2	6-12	L
03/08	Alexis Galarneau ATP Montreal · Hard	2-0	12-8	W
20/07	Ignacio Buse ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay	1-2	13-19	L
13/07	Dino Prizmic ATP Umag · Clay	0-2	4-12	L
30/06	Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass	0-3	10-19	L
25/06	Ethan Quinn ATP Mallorca · Grass	1-2	15-18	L
24/06	Ignacio Buse ATP Mallorca · Grass	2-0	13-6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Sonego vs Vit Kopriva?

Our model gives 59% to Lorenzo Sonego, using surface Elo on hard.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.