Tennis · Challenger Cancun · 21/08, 01:00
Prediction: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Moez Echargui
Team pages: Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Moez Echargui
Prediction summary
Winner
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Moez Echargui
Estimated games
25.2
Recent form · 10 last
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
2-8 (W-L)
Moez Echargui
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1477 · Moez Echargui 1465
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Moez Echargui | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Moez Echargui | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.5 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-14.5 | 12.6-14.3 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 3 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 36.2% | 41.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Marko Topo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 27/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Emilio Nava French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 21/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Moez Echargui
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Jordan Lee ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 14-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Keegan Smith Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 22/06 | Edas Butvilas Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Moez Echargui?
Our model gives 63% to Camilo Ugo Carabelli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.