Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 20/08, 17:00

Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina

Team pages: Iga Swiatek · Elena Rybakina

Prediction summary

Winner

57% 43%

Iga Swiatek Elena Rybakina

Estimated games

Recent form · 10 last

Iga Swiatek 7-3 (W-L)

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Elena Rybakina 6-4 (W-L)

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Head-to-head

Iga Swiatek 7–3 Elena Rybakina (10 last)

14 Aug2-0 12-5W
28 Jan0-2 6-13L
26 Dec2-0 12-6W
03 Nov1-2 7-15L
17 Aug2-0 13-8W
01 Jun2-1 14-14W
13 Feb2-0 13-7W
04 Jan2-0 13-10W

Showing the 8 with a final score we have.

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Iga Swiatek 1623 · Elena Rybakina 1605

	Iga Swiatek	Elena Rybakina
Our model	53%	47%
Market	60%	40%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 42% break avg.
Head-to-head: Iga Swiatek 7–3 Elena Rybakina (10).
Note: Elena Rybakina makes many double faults (4.9/match).

Statistics

	Iga Swiatek	Elena Rybakina
Win %	90%	80%
Win % · Hard	100% (9)	89% (9)
Sets (G-P)	1.8-0.5	1.6-0.8
Games (G-P)	12.4-6.5	12.9-11.2
Aces	1	6.9
Double faults	2.6	4.9
1st serve %	68.9%	74.5%
Break %	55.8%	42%

Estimated total games (ours) 21

H2H · Iga Swiatek 7 – 3 Elena Rybakina (10)

Odds Bet365

11.57

22.38

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57
2	2.50 → 2.38▼	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.8%

Time*	1	2
04:42 +4’	1.53	2.50
07:33 +2’	1.57▲	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Iga Swiatek 7–3 Elena Rybakina

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
14/08/26 WTA Toronto	2-0	12-5	W
28/01/26 Australian Open Women	0-2	6-13	L
26/12/25 Cup Matches	2-0	12-6	W
03/11/25 WTA Finals	1-2	7-15	L
17/08/25 WTA Cincinnati	2-0	13-8	W
01/06/25 French Open Women	2-1	14-14	W
13/02/25 WTA Doha	2-0	13-7	W
04/01/25 United Cup Women	2-0	13-10	W

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Iga Swiatek

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
19/08	Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-0	12-6	W
17/08	Maria Sakkari WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-1	16-8	W
16/08	Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-0	12-3	W
14/08	Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard	2-0	12-5	W
13/08	Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard	2-1	13-12	W
11/08	Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard	2-0	12-3	W
08/08	Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard	2-1	15-9	W
06/08	Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard	2-0	12-3	W
04/08	Sara Bejlek WTA Toronto · Hard	2-0	12-3	W
04/07	Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass	0-2	8-13	L

Elena Rybakina

WLWWW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
19/08	Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-0	12-8	W
17/08	Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-0	13-10	W
16/08	Taylor Townsend WTA Cincinnati · Hard	2-0	12-7	W
14/08	Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard	0-2	5-12	L
13/08	Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard	2-1	17-11	W
12/08	Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard	2-1	17-16	W
09/08	Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Toronto · Hard	2-1	16-14	W
07/08	Ann Li WTA Toronto · Hard	2-0	13-7	W
05/08	Daria Kasatkina WTA Toronto · Hard	2-1	17-14	W
04/07	Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass	0-2	7-13	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina?

Our model gives 57% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.