Tennis · Challenger Roehampton · 20/08, 13:30
Prediction: Michael Geerts vs Lucas Poullain
Team pages: Michael Geerts · Lucas Poullain
Prediction summary
Winner
Michael Geerts
Lucas Poullain
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Michael Geerts
7-3 (W-L)
Lucas Poullain
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michael Geerts 1531 · Lucas Poullain 1584
| Michael Geerts | Lucas Poullain | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucas Poullain (rating 1531 vs 1584).
Statistics
| Michael Geerts | Lucas Poullain | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-11.1 | 13.2-8.8 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.2% | 67.2% |
| Break % | 42.8% | 45.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michael Geerts
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Radu Albot Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 18/08 | Billy Blaydes Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/08 | Lars Goran Verwerft M25 Koksijde |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 14/08 | Geoffrey Blancaneaux M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/08 | Nicolas Robert M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/08 | Martin Van Der Meerschen M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/08 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 20/07 | Yi Zhou Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Pieter De Lange Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Dinko Dinev Challenger Brazzaville · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Lucas Poullain
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Max Basing Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/08 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 08/08 | Gijs Brouwer Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/08 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Dan Added Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Dan Added Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 08/07 | Isaac Becroft M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Vadym Ursu M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michael Geerts vs Lucas Poullain?
Our model gives 54% to Lucas Poullain, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.