Tennis · Challenger Quebec City · 20/08, 19:00
Prediction: Alexei Popyrin vs Hugo Gaston
Team pages: Alexei Popyrin · Hugo Gaston
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexei Popyrin
Hugo Gaston
Estimated games
24.3
Recent form · 10 last
Alexei Popyrin
4-6 (W-L)
Hugo Gaston
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexei Popyrin
0–1
Hugo Gaston
(1 last)
- 28 Jun2-3 23-23L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexei Popyrin 1461 · Hugo Gaston 1522
| Alexei Popyrin | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hugo Gaston (rating 1461 vs 1522).
- Head-to-head: Alexei Popyrin 0–1 Hugo Gaston (1).
Statistics
| Alexei Popyrin | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-13.8 | 12.5-11.8 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 27.5% | 53.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3
H2H · Alexei Popyrin 0 – 1 Hugo Gaston (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexei Popyrin 0–1 Hugo Gaston
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/22 Wimbledon | 2-3 | 23-23 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexei Popyrin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/07 | Andy Andrade Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-23 | L |
Hugo Gaston
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Duncan Chan ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tiago Torres ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Jan Choinski Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 11/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 10/07 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexei Popyrin vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model gives 55% to Alexei Popyrin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.