Tennis · UTR Pro Murfreesboro · 21/08, 16:40
Prediction: Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon vs Felipe Pinzon Moreno
Team pages: Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon · Felipe Pinzon Moreno
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon
Felipe Pinzon Moreno
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon
3-7 (W-L)
Felipe Pinzon Moreno
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon 1470 · Felipe Pinzon Moreno 1584
| Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon | Felipe Pinzon Moreno | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Felipe Pinzon Moreno (rating 1470 vs 1584).
- Felipe Pinzon Moreno is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon | Felipe Pinzon Moreno | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-11.9 | 11.3-8.6 |
| Aces | 1 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 71.4% |
| Break % | 48% | 32.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Clement Mayoral UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Eric Crivei UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 17/08 | Matthias Uwe Kask UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/06 | Nikolaos Koutroubis UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Alberto Perez Mellado UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Esteban Talavera Cortes UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 27/05 | Pavel Lagutin UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 26/05 | Miguel Angel Machado UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/05 | Darius Florin Pop UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Felipe Pinzon Moreno
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Eric Crivei UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Matthias Uwe Kask UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Clement Mayoral UTR Pro Murfreesboro · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 23/11 | Petar Teodorovic UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/11 | Alexander Brzov UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | David Saye UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/09 | Noah Eisenberg UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/09 | Nathan Gold UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/09 | Clement Mainguy UTR Pro Ithaca · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Elias Shokry UTR Pro San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon vs Felipe Pinzon Moreno?
Our model gives 69% to Felipe Pinzon Moreno, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.