Tennis · Challenger Cancun · 17/08, 23:00
Prediction: Moez Echargui vs Hugo Grenier
Team pages: Moez Echargui · Hugo Grenier
Prediction summary
Winner
Moez Echargui
Hugo Grenier
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Moez Echargui
4-6 (W-L)
Hugo Grenier
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Moez Echargui
1–3
Hugo Grenier
(4 last)
- 01 Oct0-2 8-12L
- 02 Aug2-0 13-10W
- 05 Oct0-2 8-12L
- 23 Jun0-2 6-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moez Echargui 1425 · Hugo Grenier 1480
| Moez Echargui | Hugo Grenier | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hugo Grenier (rating 1425 vs 1480).
- Head-to-head: Moez Echargui 1–3 Hugo Grenier (4).
Statistics
| Moez Echargui | Hugo Grenier | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 17% (6) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 0.5-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-14.3 | 8.4-11.5 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| Break % | 37% | 31.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Moez Echargui 1 – 3 Hugo Grenier (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moez Echargui 1–3 Hugo Grenier
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/25 Challenger Villena | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/08/25 Challenger Porto | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10/23 Challenger Alicante | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/06/18 Challenger Milan Qual | 0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moez Echargui
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Jordan Lee ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 14-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Keegan Smith Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 22/06 | Edas Butvilas Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 15/06 | Jaime Faria Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Hugo Grenier
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Cyril Vandermeersch Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Matthias Uwe Kask M25 Roda de Bara |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Paul Inchauspe M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Tristan Berard M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Oliver Okonkwo Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Luca Nardi Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Lloyd Harris French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Pierre Delage Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moez Echargui vs Hugo Grenier?
Our model gives 50% to Moez Echargui, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.