Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 18/08, 17:00
Prediction: Joao Fonseca vs Christopher O'Connell
Team pages: Joao Fonseca · Christopher O'Connell
Prediction summary
Winner
Joao Fonseca
Christopher O'Connell
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Joao Fonseca
6-4 (W-L)
Christopher O'Connell
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joao Fonseca 1534 · Christopher O'Connell 1549
| Joao Fonseca | Christopher O'Connell | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Joao Fonseca | Christopher O'Connell | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-13.5 | 12.7-11.8 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 7.8 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.5% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 38.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.9
Over 21.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 31% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joao Fonseca
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Casper Ruud ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Jesper De Jong Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Casper Ruud French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
Christopher O'Connell
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/08 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 03/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 25/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Bernard Tomic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Joel Schwaerzler Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joao Fonseca vs Christopher O'Connell?
Our model gives 64% to Joao Fonseca, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.