Tennis · Challenger Kingston · 18/08, 16:00
Prediction: Dan Martin vs Lautaro Midon
Team pages: Dan Martin · Lautaro Midon
Prediction summary
Winner
Dan Martin
Lautaro Midon
Estimated games
23.9
Recent form · 10 last
Dan Martin
4-6 (W-L)
Lautaro Midon
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dan Martin 1447 · Lautaro Midon 1532
| Dan Martin | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lautaro Midon (rating 1447 vs 1532).
- Lautaro Midon is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Dan Martin | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-12.8 | 13.5-11.9 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 48.3% | 39.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dan Martin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 10/06 | Zsombor Velcz M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Braden Shick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 24/05 | Ronald Hohmann Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 14/05 | Kaylan Bigun M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 13/05 | Ryan Haviland M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/04 | Bruno Kuzuhara Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/04 | Boris Arias Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/04 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Lautaro Midon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 14/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 13/07 | Igor Marcondes ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 12/07 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/07 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dan Martin vs Lautaro Midon?
Our model gives 67% to Lautaro Midon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.