Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Christopher O'Connell vs Casper Ruud
Team pages: Christopher O'Connell · Casper Ruud
Prediction summary
Winner
Christopher O'Connell
Casper Ruud
Estimated games
25.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Christopher O'Connell
5-5 (W-L)
Casper Ruud
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Christopher O'Connell 1544 · Casper Ruud 1503
| Christopher O'Connell | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 74% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Christopher O'Connell (rating 1544 vs 1503).
- Casper Ruud dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 44.8% break avg.
- Note: Casper Ruud makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Christopher O'Connell | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.5-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-11.8 | 16.3-16.2 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 76.8% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 38.7% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.9
Over 21.5: 75% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 25% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Christopher O'Connell
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/08 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 03/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 25/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Bernard Tomic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Joel Schwaerzler Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Casper Ruud
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Tommy Paul French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-28 | W |
| 27/05 | Hamad Medjedovic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 25/05 | Roman Safiullin French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 22/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Christopher O'Connell vs Casper Ruud?
Our model gives 61% to Casper Ruud, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.