Tennis · W15 Bucharest · 11/08, 09:30
Prediction: Lavinia Luciano vs Naomi McKenzie
Team pages: Lavinia Luciano · Naomi McKenzie
Prediction summary
Winner
Lavinia Luciano
Naomi McKenzie
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Lavinia Luciano
4-6 (W-L)
Naomi McKenzie
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lavinia Luciano 1486 · Naomi McKenzie 1548
| Lavinia Luciano | Naomi McKenzie | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi McKenzie (rating 1486 vs 1548).
- Naomi McKenzie is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Lavinia Luciano makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Lavinia Luciano | Naomi McKenzie | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.5-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.9-10.9 | 11.9-8.4 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 53.8% | 64% |
| Break % | 55.6% | 54.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lavinia Luciano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Sara Mikaca W15 Rogaska Slatina |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/07 | Mariia Drobysheva W15 Rogaska Slatina |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Kaja Najzer W15 Rogaska Slatina |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/07 | Pia Lovric W35 Torino |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Nicole Gadient W35 Buzau |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Anastasia Safta W15 Galati · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Anamaria Federica Oana W15 Galati · ~Clay |
2-0 | 9-2 | W |
| 23/06 | Simona Ogescu W15 Galati · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Alesia Breaz W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Karla Popovic W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-11 | L |
Naomi McKenzie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Victoria Gomez O'Hayon W15 Gran Canaria |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Adriana Calvo Lopez W15 Gran Canaria |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Ann Akasha Ceuca W35 Don Benito |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Vanja Gudelj W35 Don Benito |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Himari Sato ITF W35 Wagga Wagga |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Elena Micic ITF W35 Wagga Wagga |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Cara Korhonen ITF W35 Wagga Wagga |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Belle Thompson UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Kaylah McPhee UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/08 | Kirra Bond-Scott UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lavinia Luciano vs Naomi McKenzie?
Our model gives 51% to Naomi McKenzie, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.