Tennis · Challenger Todi · 10/08, 10:00
Prediction: Eric Vanshelboim vs Michele Mecarelli
Team pages: Eric Vanshelboim · Michele Mecarelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Eric Vanshelboim
Michele Mecarelli
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Eric Vanshelboim
7-3 (W-L)
Michele Mecarelli
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eric Vanshelboim 1578 · Michele Mecarelli 1504
| Eric Vanshelboim | Michele Mecarelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eric Vanshelboim (rating 1578 vs 1504).
- Eric Vanshelboim is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Eric Vanshelboim | Michele Mecarelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (1) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-9.9 | 12.3-10.5 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.8% | 70% |
| Break % | 50.5% | 53.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eric Vanshelboim
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Peter Buldorini Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Pavel Lagutin M15 Xativa |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Herman Hoeyeraal M15 Xativa |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 30/07 | Carles Cordoba M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Izan Orgiles Garcia Retamero M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M25 Denia |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 22/07 | Thomas Miranda M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Javier Barranco Cosano M25 Gandia |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Gandia |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Sergi Fita Juan M25 Gandia |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Michele Mecarelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Eero Vasa Challenger Todi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Fano |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Daniele Minighini M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 28/07 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Martin Van Der Meerschen M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 22/07 | Andrea Tognolini M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 21/07 | Leonardo Borrelli M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/07 | Gabriele Maria Noce M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Matei Florin Breazu M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Eric Vanshelboim vs Michele Mecarelli?
Our model gives 60% to Eric Vanshelboim, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.